A new study by Lukas Tohoff (Rockwool Foundation Berlin) and Mario Mechtel (Leuphana University Lüneburg), soon to be published in the Journal of Sports Economics, was discussed on radioWelt Bayern 2 in the segment “Wissenschaft schnell erzählt”. The program was hosted by Rolf Büllmann, with Johannes Roßteuscher.
The research examines the career paths of 2,383 youth players from Germany’s top 17 football academies, uncovering systematic selection biases that cost clubs millions in lost transfer value. The study finds that players born earlier in the year are favored, with 44.6% of U19 academy players born in the first quarter and 71.5% in the first half of the year, despite an even birth distribution in the population. The researchers argue that early physical advantages are mistaken for talent, leading to the exclusion of many highly skilled players born later in the year. These overlooked players tend to develop better over time and achieve higher market values in their careers.
According to Tohoff and Mechtel, correcting this bias could significantly increase transfer earnings, with clubs potentially boosting the average value of an academy graduate from €1.3 million to between €1.7 and €2.2 million. They stress that these findings are not just relevant for German football but apply to leagues across Europe and South America.
The full discussion aired on radioWelt Bayern 2, hosted by Rolf Büllmann and featuring guest Johannes Roßteuscher.
A preview of the study “Fading Shooting Stars – The Relative Age Effect, Ability, and Foregone Market Values in German Elite Youth Soccer” is available here:
